: Will the ECB hike rates or not? Decision set to be cliff hanger as economic data sours

Central bankers love to steer the market, but the messages coming from European Central Bank officials on what they will do on Thursday are anything but crystal clear.

Swaps trading imply a roughly one-in-three chance the ECB will hike interest rates from the deposit rate’s current 3.75%. That’s as the central bank has to balance inflation still uncomfortably high, at 5.3% year-over-year for both the headline and for core, with survey data showing the economy weakening, if not unravelling.


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