A new NPR, PBS, and Marist poll is showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight (within the margin of error) lead over former President Donald Trump — but some key points in that poll should be causing the Harris campaign some concern.
The poll, conducted by NPR, PBS and Marist, found Harris leading Trump 51% to 48%, but clarified that the difference is within the margin of error. Harris has also narrowed Trump’s lead on key issues like the economy.
Trump still holds a significant 6-point lead when it comes to illegal immigration, according to the poll. Meanwhile, Harris leads on abortion issues by a massive 15 points.
The Marist poll was conducted from August 1-4 and advertised a margin of error of 3.4%.
Granted overall blanket polls like this mean very little, as they don’t accurately represent how we elect presidents. But there are a few tidbits in this poll that are worth winkling out. Particularly in battleground Pennsylvania:
The state of the race in the Keystone State is similar to where it was in April, when Biden and Trump were tied 48-48%. The survey, released Friday, shows Harris and Trump locked in a tie in Pennsylvania at 49-49% – barely different from what the final election results were in the state in 2020 (49.85% Biden vs. 48.69% Trump).
That’s a vital swing state; on the evening of election day, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, it will likely be an early night. Harris could have conceivably taken Pennsylvania with Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, but the rather baffling pick of Minnesota’s far-left governor may well cost her this key battleground. And note that Trump still leads by a wide margin on immigration, which is one of the major issues of the cycle.
You can see the original poll results here. There is another data point on the economy, which is another major issue of the cycle. On the question, “Who do you think would better handle the economy as president,” Donald Trump leads 51-48. And, as someone once pointed out, in presidential campaigns, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
A quick look at the RealClearPolitics aggregate on the battleground states still has former President Trump in the lead in six of the seven states, with Harris holding a narrow lead in Michigan. As of this writing, the numbers would give Donald Trump a 297-241 Electoral College win.
Here’s another major takeaway: Bear in mind that Kamala Harris has not taken one question from even the friendly mainstream media; she has not yet faced Donald Trump in debate, and she has not entered into any substantive discussion of… anything. In a presidential campaign, peaking in early August isn’t a good indicator; the tough stuff is yet to come, and if Kamala Harris’s history has shown us anything, it’s that she can’t handle the tough stuff.
The battleground states are where it’s at; these states will be where the election will be decided, and the polling in those states is just ramping up to evaluate Harris v. Trump. We’ll be watching those polls as the election cycle moves into high gear. Stay tuned.
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