Talk about mixed messages. Many viewers did not think Donald Trump had his greatest debate performance Tuesday night as he was frequently interrupted and fact-checked in real-time by the biased ABC moderators, and new polling results reflect that. Half the respondents to a new NY Post poll conducted by Leger thought Kamala Harris won, while 29 percent thought Trump did, and 13 percent called it a draw.
But here’s the surprising part—not only did that not help her, but Trump garnered a one percent rise in his approval rating compared to a pre-debate poll, while Harris did not get a similar bump. She remains ahead of him in this poll by a very slim margin, 50-47, although the RealClearPolitics average of all polls shows the former president up by 3.1.
#BREAKING: Trump gains support in NEW POST-DEBATE national poll
[Change from post-DNC, pre-debate August poll]
🔵 Harris: 50% [=]
🔴 Trump: 47% [+1]
🟡 Other: 3%Leger | Sept. 10-11 *following the debate | N=1,174LV
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 12, 2024
So far at least, it would seem that voters weren’t swayed by Harris’ performance. That’s not the news the VP was hoping for:
GE | Leger 360 / NY Post – Post Debate
– This is not good news for Harris. No big movement. And its coming from a low ranked pollster.
– Same pollster had Biden winning by 8-9 in Oct 2020Harris 50% (+3)
Trump 47%
Other 3%https://t.co/Bkxw2XLmxu— MAGA Polling (@magapolling) September 12, 2024
POLL: 14-Point Shift Among Independents Toward Trump
Hilarious Cope Flows Like Fine Wine After Times Poll Shows Trump Beating Harris
Trump Takes Shocking Lead in Top-Level Poll, Completely Shifts Perception of the Race
I know, I know, they’re all just polls, and there’s only one that makes a difference, and that’s on November 5. But if you pay close to politics or write about them for a living, polls are an interesting, if not particularly accurate, way to get insight into how events are shaping the mood of the electorate. To me, what I look at is the aforementioned RCP average because by averaging all the top polls, you can erase some of the bias and outlier results.
And Trump is winning in that average.
The numbers will likely continue to change as voters digest the debate, but at least for now, it doesn’t appear to have moved the needle much. Harris came flying out of the gates after Joe Biden stepped aside, but after her brief honeymoon in the surveys, voters woke up to the fact that she has no substance, so it’s back to a neck-and-neck race. Many consider that an advantage for the former president since polls underestimated his support in both 2016 and 2020.
My take is that voters in this poll say she “won” the debate because she mostly stayed on script, got out her memorized lines, and didn’t have any major brain malfunctions. Trump, however, came across to some as a little agitated and angry (with good reason—he was ambushed in a three-on-one scrum).
I would argue that the poll results show that as far as appearances go, she did better in the eyes of these respondents, but they weren’t particularly moved by what she actually had to say. If you watched the whole thing, you know she pretty much said nothing other than a bunch of buzzwords and happy-sounding phrases strung together. (“Opportunity economy”: in which we take your money and give it to other people.)
Debates and polls are interesting—but it’s grocery store and gas prices at the end of the day that most people care about.
