Fusion power is one of those things that’s just 10 years away – and has been for 50 years.
Granted, if someone could make it work, and unless some major collapse of, well, civilization occurs, then eventually someone probably will, then fusion reactors would change everything. Energy would be cheaper and more available than ever with practical, steady-state fusion power. The climate change worries over the use of fossil fuels would be greatly reduced, in no small part because the use of fossil fuels would be greatly reduced. Cheap, widely available electricity from fusion reactors would change the calculus for everything from the practical use of electric cars to how we heat our homes.
The problem is, that it always seems to be an “if” proposition. But now, a Japanese startup company claims it will be ready to launch a steady-state fusion reactor by 2034.
Color me skeptical.
A Japanese startup said it plans to build the world’s first nuclear fusion reactor that can produce power for an unlimited amount of time, aiming to launch in 2034 and begin commercial operations in the decade after.
Helical Fusion is aiming to build a “pilot reactor” that will have a generation capacity of 50-100 megawatts, its CEO told Reuters. Japan has invested 400 billion yen, or $2.8 billion, into research at the National Institute for Fusion Science, and the company’s CEO, Takaya Taguchi, said it plans to leverage the funds to commercialize fusion.
“If successful, Japan, an energy importer, could produce its own energy and even export it, greatly enhancing Japan’s energy security,” Taguchi said.
In that last sentence – well, that’s a big “if.” That’s a downright stupendous “if.” Some of the most brilliant minds on the planet have been struggling with this problem for a couple of generations, and last I checked, we were, still, at least 10 years away from a practical fusion reactor. Oh, and look – 2034 is still 10 years away.
When it comes to technology, though, we shouldn’t underestimate the Japanese.
Japan’s NIFS has one of the largest fusion labs, and it has been able to reach 100 million degrees Celsius and plasma durations for nearly an hour.
However, challenges remain, according to Taguchi. The company needs to raise 1 trillion yen to build the pilot reactor, as well as to develop the technology and regulations for the reactor.
Challenges remain? That’s perhaps the greatest understatement since Napoleon Bonaparte, on the retreat from Moscow, said to his men, “Boys, it’s probably going to be a little on the chilly side.” Just the funds needed, a trillion yen, are not exactly chopped liver. That’s $6,800,000,000 American, give or take – almost seven billion.
But suppose – just suppose – they can pull it off?
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Not only will this change Japan from being a net energy importer to a net energy exporter – you know, like the United States was four years ago; think of the possibilities for license sales for the plans of this practical, steady-state fusion reactor. This in itself would be an enormous boost for Japan, and then for the rest of the world as these reactors come online. Oh, we would still need gas and oil. For one thing, such a major shift in the way we generate electricity would be the task of many decades – maybe the better part of a century. Vehicles in many places would still need to be powered by good old internal combustion engines, as people in small towns and rural areas in places where the weather gets too hot or too cold would still find electric cars impractical.
Yes, if they can make this work, it would be huge. Industrial Revolution-scale huge. But, as you see, we are still 10 years away – and I’ll believe it when I see it.
